Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.816093 0.956490 1.113733 1.302916 1.524422 1.775661 2.082425
2024-10-20 0.564350 0.740531 0.961035 1.257429 1.645830 2.138128 2.810712
2024-10-27 0.431056 0.613001 0.859464 1.218020 1.727211 2.425903 3.460411
2024-11-03 0.361064 0.548086 0.818212 1.237274 1.872568 2.802378 4.272261
2024-11-10 0.327099 0.525323 0.827945 1.324257 2.120422 3.352595 5.414231
2024-11-17 0.290900 0.491249 0.812598 1.366406 2.300758 3.820666 6.496011
2024-11-24 0.255610 0.451831 0.781016 1.374523 2.422922 4.207541 7.497509
2024-12-01 0.223770 0.412565 0.742683 1.363189 2.506751 4.536664 8.442225
2024-12-08 0.198137 0.379966 0.710442 1.356292 2.594704 4.880859 9.458984
2024-12-15 0.179236 0.356710 0.691251 1.369520 2.719685 5.306087 10.684988
2024-12-22 0.155888 0.321293 0.643997 1.321363 2.718224 5.489236 11.461664
2024-12-29 0.150727 0.321301 0.665300 1.411912 3.004902 6.273236 13.564543
2025-01-05 0.131936 0.290880 0.622215 1.365791 3.007285 6.490573 14.534256
2025-01-12 0.115681 0.263582 0.582042 1.320495 3.005948 6.702478 15.532061
2025-01-19 0.102013 0.239916 0.546235 1.279248 3.006822 6.917948 16.569219
2025-01-26 0.094601 0.229416 0.538046 1.299484 3.150771 7.473078 18.481445
2025-02-02 0.092655 0.231510 0.558861 1.390864 3.475978 8.492532 21.668871
2025-02-09 0.087772 0.225710 0.560225 1.435144 3.692813 9.283924 24.412321
2025-02-16 0.081303 0.214956 0.548046 1.443672 3.820897 9.874871 26.732901
2025-02-23 0.074457 0.202202 0.529069 1.431765 3.893966 10.335939 28.779522
2025-03-02 0.068550 0.191082 0.512751 1.424519 3.978383 10.838253 31.017181
2025-03-09 0.064165 0.183475 0.504634 1.438417 4.122736 11.520888 33.867310
2025-03-16 0.057534 0.168616 0.474954 1.387824 4.078729 11.681789 35.243198